Dark Clouds - Silver Linings...

And the rain rain rain, came down down down...

• Increased extreme events and fewer weaker events (Goswami et al., 2006)
• Lengthening of the monsoon season with earlier onset and later retreat (AR5). 

The nature of the future monsoon could have a variety of effects, aside from the more obvious incantations seen in The Himalayan Tsunami. Extreme precipitation events will lead to flooding, with Guha-Sapir et al. (2011) noting in their study, that over half of disasters were accounted for through flooding between 2001-2010. This is the focus of this post...

  

Figure 1: Monsoon flood driven infrastructure damage (ABC News)

Infrastructure damage is an annual by-product of the monsoon (Figure 1). It is often the indirect impacts of such things as road damage, that can isolate areas from medical/aid facilities, exacerbating the situation (SREX Report). In India for example, 845 million people live in areas defined as rural, thus infrastructure damage has a large influence (World Bank). Impacts are often greater due to the number of the population residing in at risk areas; globally 800 million people live in flood-prone areas - 10% of these experiencing annual flood risk (Peduzzi et al., 2011 in SREX Report). River evolution/erosion is also intensified due to land-use change; deforestation and increased soil saturation due to irrigation, can increase run-off and destabilise river banks, thus the associated risks increase (Niyogi et al., 2010; BBC: River Erosion). Lack of long-term planning is exposed during disaster response with a focus on rapid rebuilding, which can "recreate or even increase existing vulnerabilities" (SREX Report:293). Other smaller scale infrastructure damage can also become a danger and often a source of frustration/anger for the population (NDTV: Mumbai Potholes & Crumbling Infrastructure). 

Widespread contamination of water sources also occurs due to flooding. For example - the 1998 floods in Dhaka, Bangladesh, were associated with high numbers suffering from diarrhoea, especially those that did not have access to tap-water (Hashizume et al., 2008). Other water-borne diseases such as dermatosis, cardiovascular disease and gastrointestinal disease can result from pollution 'in-wash' into water sources through flooding (AR4). Additionally, Fritze et al. (2008) studied the effects of mental illness resulting from extreme events such as flooding. Often overshadowed by the physical impacts, such afflictions as PTSD, anxiety and depression are common (SREX Report). Effects are often long lasting, with those affected suffering from various disorders or even resorting to drug/alcohol abuse (Fritze et al., 2008).    

Figure 2 - Adapted groundwater resources (Taylor et al., 2012)

There are of course silver linings (pun intended). The most obvious of which is the potential for bumper crop years but that is for another post. Population growth coupled with increased demand will stress groundwater resources. The Indo-Gangetic Plain is a major regional water source (Figure 2) for Northern India and will benefit from the increased precipitation (Taylor et al., 2012), benefiting the economies in the area which all have a high dependence on agriculture in terms of GDP (World Bank). There are also other more unexpected benefits as a consequence of the monsoon rains (BBC: High Wire Fishing). Thus, the future of the monsoon may benefit the region in some ways, but the focus must be on adaptation/mitigation to the impacts that heavy precipitation events will bring...if this is not achieved the costs may far outweigh the benefits.  

Next up is drought.