Real Finance Minister of India

Agriculture accounts for 21% of India's GDP, and with 72% of the 1.1 billion strong population located in rural areas and many of these surviving on rain-fed agriculture, the monsoon rains are vital (World Bank). The economy of India has even been described by the Royal Commission on Agriculture in India, as a gamble on the monsoon (BBC - Why is India obsessed with the monsoon?). Such is their importance, that the Indian Meteorological Department was set up in 1875, attracting some of the brightest scientists of the day, in the quest for monsoon prediction (Walker Institute).This picture is common across many of the nations affected by the South Asian monsoon, which annually transforms the landscape (Figure 1) and with it the fortunes of those who inhabit the land...but not always for the better...

Figure 1 - The transformative nature of the monsoon - Source

Recent research suggests that anthropogenically driven climate change will cause the monsoon to fail more regularly over the next 200 years - between 2150 and 2200, it's projected to fail every fifth year (Schewe and Levermann, 2012). Potential redistribution of rainfall driven by anthropogenic factors, could well exacerbate the above impacts for some areas of the country (Niyogi et al., 2010; Land-use & the monsoon; Figure 2). 

Figure 2 - A farmer surveys the cracked paddy-fields as the
monsoon rains have failed (Jammu, 2012) (The Economist) 

Crop simulation studies have suggested that wheat yields could reduce by 0.45 tonnes/hectare with a rise in winter temperatures of 0.5°C in India. Within Bangladesh rice and wheat could face productivity reductions of 8% and 32% respectively by 2050. Cereal production in South Asian nations could decrease by 4-10% under conservative scenarios (AR4). This will especially affect rain-fed agriculture, approximately 55% of India's agriculture for example (BBC), that is typically owned by the poorest and thus most vulnerable populous (SREX Report). Failure of rains (40 to 70% less than average) reveals a more sinister side to the monsoon, with many farmers committing suicide following crop failure and the resulting inescapable debt (NDTV: Farmer Suicides; BBC). 

Figure 3 - Food wastage in Delhi - Source

Infrastructure, impacted by flooding (Dark Clouds - Silver Linings...), can also have an adverse affect upon agriculture (BBC - Video). An apparently high yielding year can be dampened by a poor supply chain, driven by damage to infrastructure and lack of storage facilities (Global Food: Waste Not, Want Not). Indeed, it has been estimated that annually 7% of grain (16-17 million tonnes) is wasted in India (Artiuch and Kornstein, 2012; Figure 3). This waste can often lead to price hikes such as those affecting the humble onion this year, where the price for the commodity has increased by 300% in some areas (The Washington Post).

Agriculture is integral to the economies of the nations existing within the realm of the South Asian monsoon. So important is the monsoon, that it has been dubbed the 'real finance minister of India' in some areas (Hindustan Times). The monsoon is transformative by default, however whether this will be in a life-giving capacity or bring scenes reminiscent of past famines, is dependent upon the actions the governments take in preparation for anthropogenically driven changes.

In that vein...next up adaptation and mitigation.