IPCC Headlines

What’s the latest…The IPCC released the Assessment Report 5 (AR5) at the end of September 2013 and I thought it apt to take a quick look at the monsoon headlines from the Summary For Policymakers to better equip ourselves with the latest global projections before venturing onwards…

• “Some important climate phenomena are now better reproduced by models. There is high confidence that the statistics of monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on multi-model simulations have improved since AR4.”

• “Globally it is likely that the area encompassed by monsoon systems will increase over the 21^st century.”

• “While monsoon winds are likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify due to the increase in atmospheric water.”

• “Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much.”

• “Monsoon retreat dates will likely be delayed, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.”

...so what does this mean for the South Asian monsoon in particular...well that's our stop in a couple of posts time...all aboard!! 

Life goes on in Mumbai during the monsoon (BBC)

NB: In all of the above quotes from the AR5 report, likely indicates the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result at 66-100%. The IPCC AR5 also has sections on all of the global sub-system monsoons and it's well worth a read if you're interested!